In brief: Global air freight rates fell 2.1% in the week to October 12, 2026, mainly due to the seasonal slowdown around China’s Golden Week holiday, but outbound rates from Europe kept climbing as the industry heads into peak season.
According to data provider TAC Index, the overall Baltic Air Freight Index remained 24.3% higher year on year despite the weekly dip, which reflected factory closures and lower volumes during Golden Week. The Frankfurt outbound index rose 3.0% week on week to stand 47.7% higher year on year, while the London Heathrow outbound index jumped 12.1% week on week and was up 44.7% year on year, driven by gains on routes to North America and the Middle East. Jet fuel prices added further pressure, rising 3.1% week on week and about 111% year on year, according to IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor. E-commerce shippers have already secured peak-season capacity, while some large shippers, including AI-related “hyperscalers,” had yet to book space.
For European exporters and freight forwarders, the data points to tightening capacity and firming rates on outbound lanes to the US and other destinations through the rest of the fourth quarter, even as global rates dip briefly during Chinese holiday periods. Shippers without confirmed peak-season allocations should expect limited room to negotiate as capacity fills.
Source: The STAT Trade Times, October 13, 2026.