In brief: Global air cargo rates rose 4.7% in the week to October 19, according to TAC Index’s Baltic Air Freight Index, leaving rates 26.4% above year-earlier levels and higher than at the peak of the last two holiday seasons.
TAC said rates were already elevated from disruption tied to the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, and that jet fuel prices — up 113.7% year on year as of October 16, per IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor — are now putting “a hard floor under rates at which airlines will carry cargo.” The strongest gains came on the busiest China-to-US lanes; China-to-Europe rates rose more modestly, having lagged since July after the EU’s removal of the de minimis customs exemption cut small-parcel volumes. Outbound rates softened slightly from Frankfurt (-6.6% week on week, still +33.7% year on year) and London Heathrow (-2.3% week on week, +35.2% year on year), while transatlantic Europe-to-US rates also eased.
Importers and exporters booking air cargo into the US or Europe should expect rates and fuel surcharges to stay elevated through the peak season, with the US-bound lanes currently tighter than Europe-bound ones — a gap worth weighing when choosing routing and timing.
Source: Air Cargo News, October 22, 2026.