In brief: The World Bank says the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor — the Middle Corridor linking East Asia and Europe through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus and Türkiye — needs more than $55 billion in investment by 2040 to quadruple freight volumes and cut transit times by roughly two-thirds.
Published October 13, 2026, the report splits the investment need into about $25 billion for physical infrastructure — railway networks, ports and connecting roads — and another $30 billion for locomotives, freight wagons, cargo-handling equipment, inland terminals, logistics hubs and digital systems. Infrastructure spending alone could more than triple trade volumes and halve transit times by 2040, the World Bank estimates, while the full package of investment and reforms could add 3.3% to corridor countries’ combined GDP and create about 2 million jobs. The bank recommends a joint rail and shipping operator for integrated container transport, a shared digital system for customs and transport documentation, and more commercially run state rail, port and shipping operators.
For shippers routing cargo between China, Central Asia and Europe, the report is a reminder that current Middle Corridor capacity and border delays remain the binding constraint on treating it as a reliable alternative to Russian transit or the Suez route. Progress will depend on whether Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye act on the bank’s coordination and digitalisation recommendations.
Source: World Bank, October 13, 2026.